What will President Putin do in response to Syrian – Turkey Border incident?
The downing of Russia’s warplane Su-24 will in what is being widely reported as Turkey either via air power of surface to air missile / artillery will leave some very difficult choices for President Putin.
The dispute will initially arise on which side of the border the plane was on.
Russia’s version
1. Plane maintained flight path within Syrian Territory
2. Did not violate Turkish air space
3. Two Pilots managed to eject and a rescue operation is Underway
Turkeys version
1. In Turkish Air space
2. Multiple warning given
3. Shot down by F16s
4. Have dispatched search and rescue teams.
Firstly let’s look at what they have in common, they have both dispatched search and rescue teams, this give s both parties opportunity to work together to save the lives of the pilots and attempt rescue if as reported they have been captured, the two nations working together for a common goal can offer some common ground were a shattered trust can be tentatively re-established.
Now the difficult bit, President Putin will likely not be too happy about the events, and will have to use statesmanship and diplomacy to reduce risk of further escalation and negative outcomes. The only thing that is certain should this escalate militarily then there will be no positive outcome.
The Russian pilots were doing their job and it is hoped that by working together to rescue them, it can reduce the risk for further miss communication and hostilities. The time for reflection on events will come now it is time for rescue and collaboration.