Is the brexit all negative for the brits
There is presently a lot of talk about the brexit and what the implications would be if the referendum planned for June later this year was to end with a win for those campaigning for “leave”. Looking at what has been going on in the press, it would come across as if leaving the EU will be a completely bad step for the Britons to take. This outlook promoted in the media is quite understandable if you consider the fact that there are many people and groups that stand to lose if this was to happen. However, it is important to take an honest look at some of the positive outcomes that may arise from such a move. While there are various school of thought on what could happen if the UK leaves EU, this article aims to focus on the possible positive outcome for the Britons. This will be done by taking a look at the effet on trade, jobs and migration.
UK leaves EU – The effect on UK Trade
While there have been many who have tried to prove that a brexit would result in negative trade consequences for the UK, the Think Tank group Open Europe proposes, that if the UK leaves EU and still manages to get free trade agreements with the EU, its GDP could increase by as much as 1.6% by the year 2030. Seasoned economist Roger Bootle in his book speaks in favor of the UK leaving the EU. However, he cautions that people should try and avoid talking of numbers. He points out that the UK gives more to the EU than it receives. There are also those such as UKIP’s Tom Cogdon who thinks that the EU regulations are costing the UK a lot. However those promoting the leave campaign are happy to point out that if the UK was to leave and still get a trade agreement with the EU, there should be no major setbacks in terms of trade. Also there are those who say that when it comes to trade, a lot of emphasis is placed on goods. However, the UK main trade is in services and the EU does not support up to 40% of UK service trade. Most of this is supported by Non EU member states.
The effect on Jobs
In many political debates, politicians have been quick to point out that more than 3 million jobs depended on the UK being a member of the EU. However, think tank group Institute of Economic Affairs cautions that this assertion by politicians is very misleading. They point out clearly that jobs are based on trade and not membership of a particular union. There is no guarantee that just because the UK has left the EU, jobs will disappear overnight.
The effect on migration
All the eurosceptics are quick to point out that if UK leaves EU, it will be able o have better controls of its national borders. This also means that depending on the type of visa agreement that the UK has with other EU states after the brexit, EU citizens may have to go through the very strict visa application that other citizens from non EU member states have been subjected to.
At the end of the day, whether or not the exit from the EU will be all bad or all good for the UK is only speculation. The real test will be in the “eating o the pudding”.