Some Perspective on the North Korean Problem.
Almost a month ago, North Korea announced another “successful” bomb test (1).
It was a hydrogen bomb this time. And according to reports, it was the biggest test done by the communist government.
Obviously, the size and apparent success of the bomb has sparked international worries. After all, North Korea has been threatening the US with bombing for years.
But US hate aside, a North Korea bomb is more harm than good. And it’s definitely a large minus in maintaining peace within Asia.
And the entire world…
What a North Korean Bomb Means.
Let’s look at South East Asia for a second.
You’ve got China, Japan and South Korea as the most known countries in the region. And those countries seriously impact the world company.
Those 3 Asian tigers collectively account for a big share of the world’s exports. China and Japan are 2 of the largest manufacturing countries in the world. And South Korea is one of the best in tech.
And it just happens that North Korea is right in-between those 3 countries.
So a war in that region won’t just destabilize 3 Asian countries. It’s going to destabilize the entire world economy.
Expect a global crisis if North Korea commits to its nuclear threat.
A War that Ends World Trade.
Most products are exported from South East Asia by marine technology. So you have cargo ships moving all around the South East Asian region.
A war with North Korea might make cargo ship mobility impossible. Trying to ship items from Asia will be a suicide mission.
And we’re not just talking about a normal war here. This is going to be a nuke war.
A nuke war means mass destruction of ports. And it also means nuclear contamination of the seas. In essence, exports from South East Asia might be impossible for 100s of years…
But Let’s Stay Diplomatic…
Is American interventionism the answer?
Diplomatically, that might be OK. But in terms of actually invading North Korea… we think that might be more harm than good.
After all, we have to remember why North Korea hates the US in the 1st place.
To be specific, there are 2 reasons why North Korea hates the US. The first would be the bitter memories of the Korean War, and fighting communism.
And the 2nd would be its support of South Korea.
South Korea is the mirror enemy of North Korea. And it’s more freaked out by the nuke tests than any other country in the region.
So obviously, South Korea should be preparing to deal with the problem.
A War with North Korea: One Where Everyone Loses.
We gain nothing from fighting North Korea, other than the curbing of a threat.
But the price will be too high. We’ll be risking the world economy. And we’ll be wasting decades just to recover from a single war.
Oddly enough, Chinese interventionism might be a solution. And it doesn’t have to be negative.
China is one of the few countries in the world that maintains an “OK” relationship with North Korea. And it’s not just for the sake of friendship.
It’s because of the economic assistance that China provides to North Korea.
And since the Chinese economy will crash with a nuke war, China will have a big role in negotiations. In fact, China should proactively restrain North Korea if threats do escalate.
China also controls 90% of North Korea’s trade (2). This means that China can use economic pressure to eliminate tensions in the region.
And we don’t think North Korea will risk complete starvation, just to bomb Americans. The North Korean government should know better…
So Problem Solved?
Yes. But this creates a problem in US foreign policy.
You see, the threat of nukes can slowly force the US out of South East Asia.
This means complete withdrawal from Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea. Not responding to the North Korean threat might compromise US influence over the region.
This also creates problems over the control of the pacific. Because China, US, and Japan are fighting for sea territory there.
With reduced US influence, tensions may flare up between China and Japan. So we basically solve one problem, only to end up with another.
The North Korean problem might just be a precursor to reduced US influence in Asia. But we don’t see it as something that will start a regional war.
Especially a war where everyone loses.